“No, people should not be worried that their taps are going to run dry. But a lot of the solutions to the Colorado River shortage are going to entail higher costs,” said Kathryn Sorensen, director of research at the Kyle Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University.

Sorensen said customers will have to keep the cash flowing to keep water flowing.

“If you want to have reliable tap water services over time, you have to pay the piper. And with Colorado River shortages here, that time has come,” she said.

"It’s something that I’ve been advocating for years that there are ways that cities and water utilities can help each other in a way that doesn’t take advantage of their customers, doesn’t take advantage of their portfolios or their assets but is really beneficial," Cynthia Campbell of the Arizona Water Innovation Initiative said. 

Kathryn Sorensen, a senior researcher at Arizona State University's Kyl Center for Water Policy, said the Rio Verde Foothills crisis couldn't happen within the bounds of other Arizona cities that have made careful plans to keep water flowing for years into the future.

"If one small part of the Valley of the Sun experiences problems," said Sorensen, who is also former director of Phoenix's water department, "everyone is going to get stuck with that same label. That could be bad news for our economy. So I think that there is a very sound reason for all of us to hold hands and help each other weather this storm."

In times of drought, like this, higher priority users get their water allotment first and users down the list get less. The river doesn't get to keep much water.

"Every river in Arizona is overallocated," said Rhett Larson, a professor of water law and senior research fellow with the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University

According to Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University, data centers are one piece of a much larger water landscape.

“In spite of the region’s significant urban growth and industrial development over the last few decades, agriculture still uses more water than any other sector,” Porter said, referencing a recent Kyl Center report examining large water users in central Arizona.

Sarah Porter, director of ASU’s Kyl Center for Water Policy, shot down a common misconception before reinforcing a common fear.

“We are using less water now than we did in the Eighties and the Nineties … population growth is not the problem here,” Porter said. But … “We need to prepare. We in central Arizona, need to prepare for cuts of Colorado River water as much as 80%.”

The root of the problem is Colorado’s decades-long decline in rain – and, crucially, snow.

In many frameworks, households that avoid municipal systems are described as “coping” with limited access. But in a recent article by Thomson and Wutich, they suggest something more deliberate.

Residents weigh multiple factors, including perceived water quality and long-term affordability. Some express discomfort with government oversight or metering, while others value independence from centralized systems. In that context, relying on alternative sources is not a last resort. It can be a deliberate, informed decision.

“It’s very easy to see these choices as irrational,” Thomson said. “But when you understand the context people are living in, they can actually make a lot of sense.”

State law requires builders in certain parts of the state — including the Phoenix area — to prove there’s an assured hundred-year water supply for houses being built there.

But shortly after Gov. Katie Hobbs took office, she released a report showing the Phoenix Active Management Area was short of that. Those numbers led to a pause in building new homes in parts of the Valley.

Kathleen Ferris, senior research fellow at the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University's Morrison Institute for Public Policy, joined The Show to talk about the ruling and its potential impacts. Ferris was also instrumental in crafting the 1980 Groundwater Management Act.

The Bureau of Reclamation says the Colorado River system is now at about 36% of capacity, an alarming figure that has prompted federal and state leaders to consider emergency-style actions. While low reservoir levels have been a concern for decades, water experts say this year is different because the region received little help from winter storms.

“The causes of those declining water levels are multiple—it’s not one thing—but certainly this year we didn’t get any help from Mother Nature,” said Sarah Porter, a water policy expert at Arizona State University.

The lights aren't actually in any danger of going out. Reclamation officials said on Friday they will begin moving water from Flaming Gorge Reservoir on the upper river to prop up water levels in Lake Powell. The Republic's Deb Krol outlines the plan in her story about the release of the latest projections.

Said Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University's Morrison Institute for Public Policy: "This reflects what a challenging time we're in now. We have experienced a bad winter and low flows, and there are few options available."