While the lower basin states have submitted an allocation plan for consideration, there is not yet a consensus plan among all states, including the upper basin states, said Dave White, director of the Global Institute of Sustainability and Innovation at Arizona State University.

Lake Powell is now just 33 feet from the level at which it can no longer generate electricity. Years of drought have already cut hydropower production from the Colorado River system by roughly half as lakes Mead and Powell continue to shrink.

“It’s a serious situation,” said Sarah Porter, director of ASU’s Kyl Center for Water Policy. “Water from the Colorado River is around 30% of the supply for cities in the greater Phoenix area.”

It's also seeming likely Interior will opt for a shorter-term approach, probably two years at a time, to allow water managers to adapt to changing conditions on the river, in the two reservoirs and among users. What that approach promises, though, is uncertainty and that's something no water planner likes to talk about.

"The Bureau’s desire for maximum flexibility is in tension with the Lower Basin states’ need for certainty and that’s what the negotiations are all about right now,” Sarah Porter, who directs Arizona State University’s Kyl Center for Water Policy, said.

“At the end of the day, cities have the responsibility to ensure reliable, safe tap water supplies,” said Kathryn Sorensen, research director for Arizona State University's Kyl Center for Water Policy. “That’s not the responsibility of the state. It’s not the responsibility of the federal government. And so you see cities really stepping up.”

“There’s nothing technically to stop the states from continuing to negotiate,” Sarah Porter, who directs Arizona State University’s Kyl Center for Water Policy told The Arizona Republic in an email. “But by the same token, they have been unable to reach a deal after all this time and there’s no reason to think that more time will help, especially given the precarious reservoir levels and the unrealistic prospects for their recovery.”

Things could get even worse, experts say. “The low reservoir levels are a dramatic signal that the system is at risk of crashing, meaning reservoir levels so low that water cannot be delivered from them,” said Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at Arizona State University.

“The concern for Scottsdale is whether it will be ready for very deep shortages, and it isn’t so much with the supply, though supply is definitely an issue, but it is also very much about the infrastructure,” Sarah Porter explained. “Does Scottsdale have the infrastructure to send alternative water supplies to a water treatment plant and then deliver that tap water out into their very north parts of town?”

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s latest expansion plans in north Phoenix could make it the city of Phoenix’s largest tap water customer, according to a water policy expert at Arizona State University.

The company’s first fab, which started production in late 2024, uses approximately 5,300 acre-feet of water per year. 

Sarah Porter, director of the Kyl Center for Water Policy at ASU, said that figure places semiconductor manufacturing near the top of the list of industrial water users in the Phoenix area.

First Alert Meteorologists Royal Norman and Pete Mangione are learning about harvesting water from the atmosphere. The guest today is Regents Professor Paul Westerhoff with Arizona State University's School of Sustainable Engineering and the Built Environment. Paul explains how this process is done, how it could be better than desalination plants, and how anyone can start using this technology today.