Navigating uncertainty: Collaborative solutions for sustainable water management in the rural west

Like many rural residents in Arizona, the people of Sulphur Springs Valley in Cochise County are facing groundwater declines while attempting to balance a multitude of community needs, including protecting their agricultural heritage and economy, as well as supporting overall quality of life. 

Two ballot measures that would provide statewide water management in the form of groundwater Active Management Areas (AMAs) have gone to voters in Cochise County for approval – one passed, the Douglas AMA, the other was struck down. 

These kinds of ballot measures have compelled communities across the state to grapple with challenging decisions regarding the future of groundwater management. For example, the Governor’s Water Policy Council is exploring new and updated groundwater regulations, and there is discussion of groundwater management in other rural communities, including Gila Bend, in the southwestern part of the state.

To address water challenges in the Sulphur Springs Valley, community members helped design and conduct a planning workshop to explore possible futures for agriculture and groundwater, identifying strategies for adapting to various changes and outcomes. This Exploratory Scenario Planning (XSP) for Water Resilient Agriculture project is led by a team from two units of the Lincoln Institute of Land Policy, its Babbitt Center for Land and Water Policy and Consortium for Scenario Planning. The Arizona Water Innovation Initiative, a multi-year partnership with the state led by Arizona State University’s Julie Ann Wrigley Global Futures Laboratory and Ira A. Fulton Schools of Engineering, co-led the effort. 

The project uses an exploratory scenario planning process to consider the impacts of changes in water availability and other forces driving uncertainty in the region. The Sulphur Springs Valley XSP workshop team also included professional facilitation support from Southwest Decision Resources, Cochise College, Cochise County, University of Arizona’s Arizona Institute for Resilience, and The Nature Conservancy. 

Exploratory scenario planning facilitates proactive discussions and preparations for various potential futures while pursuing an overarching vision and avoiding reliance on a single presumed future. It delves into the root drivers of possible futures, providing stakeholders with insights for adaptation, resource alignment and flexible policy creation.

The project was initiated through the formation of a steering committee composed of local stakeholders with diverse perspectives. This committee provided oversight, guidance, and rallied the community for workshop participation.

In September 2023, the project team and the local steering committee hosted a two-day XSP workshop, bringing together participants with varied perspectives representing different sectors. These sectors included multi-generational and newer agricultural interests, homesteaders and residents, city and county representatives and other business and community leaders.

Facilitators guided discussions on large-scale forces driving community change, helping analyze and prioritize strategies across different future conditions. The workshop provided the time and space for participants to creatively explore and discuss complex groundwater and agricultural issues, fostering collaboration and the identification of mutual goals. An immediate post-workshop outcome was the formation of the Sulphur Springs Water Alliance, a collaborative watershed group dedicated to effective management and conservation of the region’s water resources.

A few key elements contributed to the success of the workshop: 

• Community-led collaboration: The Sulphur Springs Valley XSP project was driven by the community, with a diverse local steering committee actively shaping the workshop. Their leadership not only enhanced credibility but also fostered trust and communication among individuals with a range of views. Participants, appreciating diverse representation, committed to collaborative efforts for a better collective water future.
   
• Local expertise and empowerment: Workshop discussions were guided by local expertise, empowering participants to prioritize ideas. While outside experts were available, the emphasis was on cross-disciplinary local knowledge.
   
• Futures thinking and strategic discussions: Discussions focused on understanding trends across possible futures, allowing proactive anticipation of changes. Participants shaped future scenarios, discussing impacts, opportunities, and connections with stakeholders in the region. Expert facilitators led strategic discussions, using a clear process and methodology. Intentional questions and activities maintained structured, inclusive, and productive conversations, ensuring all voices were heard.

Rural communities facing groundwater challenges across the state of Arizona are often portrayed as individualistic and resistant to change and regulation. However, the results of this XSP workshop in Cochise County demonstrate that rural communities are rich with diverse, committed and passionate residents who value cooperative priorities and solutions to support regional water management efforts. 

While each region has differing biophysical, economic and social contexts, the planning approaches used in this workshop can be more widely applied to other arid and semi-arid communities across Arizona and the West to help more rural areas collaboratively explore uncertain trends and forces at play in their regions. If we are to safeguard water supplies and support resilient, agricultural communities, all stakeholders should be at the table.

Water supply Water security